Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Assam Election 2016 Opinion Poll Election Survey Result Exit Poll Aaj Tak ABP News-Nielsen India TV

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The tenure of Assam assembly ends in June 5, 2016.The full bench of the Election commission headed by Syed Nasim Ahmad Zaidi visited Assam on 21 December 2015.Voter-verified paper audit trail will be used in Assam assembly elections.250 polling stations will be made model polling stations.

ASSAM Opinion Poll 2016

National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) is being updated in Assam and the process is to be completed by 1 January 2016. The process is monitored by Supreme Court of India.By September 2015, The first phase of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam was completed, with over 66.90 lakh households submitting forms linking themselves to either the NRC of 1951 or any of the electoral rolls prior to 24 March 1971. It will be followed by task of verifying the applications. The whole exercise is meant for detection, detention and deportation of the illegal migrants who crossed over to Assam from Bangladesh on or after March 25, 1971.Since 1985, Foreigners’ Tribunals have declared over 38,000 persons in Assam as illegal migrants. Nearly 1.5 lakh names in Assam’s electoral rolls carry the prefix “D” — for “Doubtful” citizenship status. Supreme Court has directed Assam Government to complete upgrading of draft as well as the final NRC by March 1,2016. All Assam Students Union accused state government of delaying the NRC update by transferring the officials involved against the Supreme Court directive.In May 2015, the historic India Bangladesh land swap deal was signed.

According to the draft electoral rolls published in October 2015, the total number of voters in Assam stand at 1.92 crore. Election Commission has said that final electoral rolls will be published by 11 January 2016. In November 2015, Union Minister and Lakhimpur MP Sarbananda Sonowal was made Assam BJP chief and he will head election committee. Sarbananda Sonowal labelled the situation of ‘illegal immigration’ from Bangladesh “very alarming. Sonowal was pioneer in getting the controversial IMDT Act struck down by Supreme court of India in December 2006. Himanta Biswa Sarma, a state Congress heavyweight joined BJP.BJP has aimed for ‘Mission 84’ in Assam. BJP led in 69 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 by winning 7 Lok Sabha seats in Assam. For the first time, the BJP had contested the Bodoland Territorial Council elections, and won a seat.

In September 2015, Central Government decided to allow minority refugees from Bangladesh and Pakistan to stay in India even after expiry of their visas on humanitarian grounds.In November 2015, CM Tarun Gogoi labelled BJP as party of Hindi-speaking netas trying to invade Assam, for which he was criticized. Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid rich tributes to Assamese war hero Lachit Borphukan on his birth anniversary. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi said that his party will not fight Assam elections to prevent split in Muslim votes.In December 2015, BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma filed a ₹100 crore (US$15 million) civil defamation suit against chief minister Tarun Gogoi for alleging his involvement in scams.

In November 2015, BJP President Amit Shah held a BJP party workers’ rally in Dibrugarh in Upper Assam Division. In December 2015, Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi visited Assam where he accused RSS workers of not letting him enter temple in Barpeta disctrict, Barpeta Satra. RSS denied the charge. Rahul Gandhi announced that Tarun Gogoi will be chief minister candidate of Congress. There is a growing demand for giving scheduled tribe(ST) status to six communities — Tai Ahoms, Koch Rajbongshis, Moran, Motok, Sootea and 36 tea tribes (the descendants of tea garden workers settled by British in the state from Chotanagpur plateau in mid 19th century). NDA government may bring an ordinance for the ST status before elections,which has been raised by ULFA initially.

In November 2015, 9 Congress MLAs joined BJP. Assam Governor PB Acharya made a controversial statement that Hindustan is only for Hindus. Ex-Ulfa rebels announced to contest Assam polls. On 26 December 2015, BJP's Assam unit launched its ambitious 'Assam Nirman' initiative, seeking public opinion to prepare a vision document for making Assam developed.

Congress is trying to rope in election strategist Prashant Kishor for Assam Polls. BJP roped in Harvard expert Rajat Sethi for vision document in Assam. Congress state leader Nilamoni Sen Deka made controversial statement on BJP minister Smriti Irani comparing her to PM Narendra Modi's second wife. A FIR was registered against the Congress leader. On 28 December 2015, Smriti Irani visited Barak Valley in Assam and accused Tarun Gogoi government for not doing enough for women safety. Tarun Gogoi accused the NDA government of adopting dillydally tactics on granting citizenship to 'persecuted' refugees from Bangladesh. Gogoi said external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was busy meeting businessmen in Assam during her visit instead of talking about the problems and issues confronting the state like the declared illegal immigrants from Bangladesh are not accepted by Bangladesh, reports of China constructing dams in the upper reaches of Brahmaputra and North-eastern insurgents in Myanmar.

In January 2016, Gogoi govt announced freebies like to give rice at Rs 2 a kg and to build all-religion bhawans. Assam Congress President rule out any alliance with AIUDF, AGP. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Assam on 3 January 2016 and said the fencing along the Indo-Bangladesh border will be completed by December 2016. Assam shares only 263 kms of the 4096-km international boundary between India and Bangladesh, in which 44 kms of the boundary passes through the Brahmaputra river. 5.14 km of land border fencing remains to be completed in Karimganj district in Assam and 35 km of riverine border in Dhubri district. A a delegation of the All Assam Students Union (AASU) also met Rajnath Singh and visited the border areas. Rajnath Singh visited Dhubri district and expressed dissatisfaction with the fencing work there. He said that a feasibility study and two pilot projects are underway in Dhubri sector of the riverine border. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said that 97.32% of the border fencing work in Karimganj and Dhubri was complete and asked the Central Government to take up a pilot project involving technological solution to plug the riverine border.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a big rally in Kokrajhar on 19 January 2016, after his visit to Sikkim on 18 January 2016. Modi formally announced the alliance of BPF with BJP in Assam. Soon after Modi's visit AIUDF's Maulana Badruddin Ajmal remarked that Modi has united Hindus in Assam, it is time for minorities to unite, for which Ajmal was criticised. On 30 January 2016, Central Government released ₹128 crore (US$19 million) for minorities In Assam.

On 28 January 2016, BJP Parliamentary Board announced Sarbananda Sonowal as BJP Chief Ministerial candidate of Assam. On 30 January 2016, 500 Maulanas in Assam extended their support to BJP at an ulema (Islamic scholars) conference, organized by Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind endorsing BJP's "Rastrabadi (nationalist)" ideology. Union minister of state for commerce and industry Nirmala Sitharaman accused chief minister Tarun Gogoi with spreading misinformation on the suspension of the North East Industrial and Investment Promotion Policy (NEIIPP), 2007. Ethnic groups of Assam seeked ULFA pro-talks faction headed by founding general secretary Anup Chetia help to get ST tag.

Narendra Modi will arrive on 5 February 2016 to first attend the 85th conference of Srimanta Sankaradeva Sangha at the erstwhile Ahom capital of Sivasagar, and then he will address a rally at Moran in Dibrugarh district in Upper Assam. Modi will then inaugurate the 2016 South Asian Games in Guwahati on 5 February

Religion data

According to the 2011 census, 61.5% were Hindus, 34.22% were Muslims. Christian minorities (3.7%) are found among Scheduled Tribe population. Scheduled Tribe population in Assam is around 13% in which Bodos account for 40%.

Out of 32 districts of Assam, 9 are Muslim majority according to the 2011 census of India. The districts are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Karimganj, Hailakandi, Darrang and Bongaigaon. Bodos have a population share of 12% -it include all sections in the greater Kachari group. The share of the Assamese speakers in Assam was 48.80% in 2001 census.

Religion in Assam (2016)

  Hinduism (61.46%)
  Islam (34.22%)
  Christianity (3.73%)
  Buddhism (0.17%)
  Jainism (0.08%)
  Sikhism (0.06%)
  Other or not religious (0.3%)

Opinion Poll

When conducted
Polling organisation/Agency Sample size
Oct'16- Dec'16
Leadtech-infoelections 2151 36 61 26 3

Result(Yet To Be Update)

Pos Party Contested Seats Swing
1 Flag of the Indian National Congress.svg Indian National Congress
2 BJP election symbol.svg Bharatiya Janata Party
3 AIUDF-flag.svg All India United Democratic Front
4 BPF-Flag.svg Bodoland People's Front
5 Flag of Asom Gana Parishad.svg Asom Gana Parishad
6 All India Trinamool Congress flag.svg All India Trinamool Congress
7 Independents
8 Cpim party symbol.svg Communist Party of India (Marxist)
9 CPI-banner.svg Communist Party of India
Total 126